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Review a promising collection initiative
Check the base rate before reacting · Fictional case
The situation
Out of 50 comparable collection initiatives, 15 hit their target. The sponsor cites four successful pilots from a different region without reporting failures.
Your task
What baseline should the team use and what evidence could update it?
Reveal step-by-step solution
Set up the problem
Use all 50 comparable initiatives. Observed success rate = 15 ÷ 50 = 30%.
Work through the numbers
Check the sponsor’s selection process and denominator. Compare regions, customer mix and implementation.
Interpret the result
Start at the 30% outside view. Move it only after getting evidence on comparability and the full pilot outcomes.
What to remember
Name the reference class and check whether failed or abandoned attempts were included.